The Floor
Which of next year's elections will surprise the world most?
Four are worth watching. Only one of them will be the one nobody saw coming.
Concluded from · Assessed at the close against what actually happened in each of the named elections.
1y 3m left
1,389 people have taken a position.
Take a position and it opens — to you now, and to everybody when this closes.
The split is covered until you have taken a position, because on a question like this the room is not evidence about the world — it is what is being measured, and a number shown first would only tell you what the normal answer is. Four guesses and no strong prior: the first answers would set everybody else's, so this one opens when you have picked. It opens to everybody when this closes, answered or not.
What people are weighing
Take a position to mark what weighed with you
- Turnout has fallen in nine of the last twelveA record low turnout
- New parties polled above ten percent in three of themA new party wins
- Most elections surprise nobodyNo real surprise
What settles this, and when it closes
Settles on the outcome most widely described as a surprise by three of five named international outlets in their year-end reviews.
Source: Year-end reviews from five named international outlets · expected by 31 Jan
Counting closes on 31 Dec.
What people said · 3
Every bubble carries the side its writer took.
Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.
Anton P.@anton_p· 8 Sept
Three of them have a new party polling above ten. That is the reliable way a result stops looking like the last one.
Fiona M.@fiona_m· 9 Sept
Almost every election is predicted correctly and then described as a shock afterwards. The surprise is usually in the commentary.
Hugo N.@hugo_n· 10 Sept
Turnout has fallen in nine of the last twelve and nobody ever calls it. It will be a record low somewhere and it will barely be reported.
