The Floor
Will Russia and Ukraine sign an agreement to end the war before July 2027?
The single most-forecast question on the largest public forecasting board in the world.
Concluded from · Signed or announced by both governments and reported by Reuters, before 1 July 2027.
9 months left
27%
Signed before July
73%
Still no agreement
46 points apart — the bar grows from even, in the direction the room leans.
Where you stand
The room's largest group answered "Still no agreement".
Answered as you did
—
Lead over second
46 pts
"Still no agreement" is ahead
Everyone here
1,515
264 changed their mind
How divided
Leaning one way
agreed → even
| Answer | Share of the room | People | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signed before July | 412 | 27% | |
| Still no agreementmost | 1,103 | 73% |
Settles by 1 Jul · Statements from both governments, reported by two international wire services decides it.
1,515 have taken a position · 264 changed their mind · 3 reasons
What people are weighing
Take a position to mark what weighed with you
- Front lines have barely moved for eighteen monthsSigned before July
- Neither side has dropped its opening preconditionStill no agreement
- Two previous ceasefire rounds collapsed inside a weekStill no agreement
Talks have opened and stalled twice since spring. Both sides describe the current round as exploratory.
How the room moved
Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 1 Aug to now
What settles this, and when it closes
Settles yes if both governments announce a signed agreement intended to end the fighting, whatever it is called.
Source: Statements from both governments, reported by two international wire services · expected by 1 Jul
Counting closes on 30 Jun.
What people said · 3
Every bubble carries the side its writer took.
Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.
Marta K.@marta_k· 2 Sept
Every round so far has broken on the same point, and nothing about that point has changed. Exploratory talks are not a trend.
Deniz A.@deniz_a· 4 Sept
Wars end when both sides can afford to stop more than they can afford to continue. That arithmetic moved this summer even if the talks did not.
Ruth O.@ruth_o· 7 Sept
Ten months is not long for a document that has to survive two parliaments.
