When will the fighting in Sudan stop for at least a month?

The worldCloses 31 Dec 2027

When will the fighting in Sudan stop for at least a month?

Two years of announced ceasefires, none of which held four weeks.

Concluded from · Thirty consecutive days with no recorded battle death, per ACLED's conflict series.

1y 3m left

Before 2027

First half of 2027

18%

Second half of 2027

27%

2028 or later

33%

Not in this decade

15%

0%25%50%75%100%

Share of the room per band, 0 to 100 per cent. The bands run in order and the shade runs with them, light to dark.

Where you stand

The room's largest group answered "2028 or later".

Answered as you did

—

Lead over second

6 pts

"2028 or later" is ahead

Everyone here

807

47 changed their mind

How divided

Genuinely divided

agreed → even

Every answer, with how many people gave it
Answer	People	Share
Before 2027	61	8%
First half of 2027	143	18%
Second half of 2027	220	27%
2028 or latermost	265	33%
Not in this decade	118	15%

Settles by 15 Jan · ACLED's published event record decides it.

807 have taken a position · 47 changed their mind · 3 reasons

What people are weighing

Take a position to mark what weighed with you

Both armies still hold their main supply corridors
Regional mediators have withdrawn twice this year
Famine conditions have historically preceded negotiated pauses

Both sides have signed pauses before. The longest held eleven days.

How the room moved

Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 11 Aug to now

Before 2027 8% nowFirst half of 2027 18% nowSecond half of 2027 27% now2028 or later 33% nowNot in this decade 15% now

What settles this, and when it closes

Settles on the first thirty consecutive days with no reported armed engagement between the two main forces.

Source: ACLED's published event record · expected by 15 Jan

Counting closes on 31 Dec.

What people said · 3

Every bubble carries the side its writer took.

Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.

Amal S.@amal_s· 1 Sept

2028 or later

Neither force has a reason to stop while both still believe they can win the capital. That belief outlasts fuel and food.

22 called it the strongest case

Aisha M.@aisha_m· 9 Sept

2028 or later

Every pause in this war has been a resupply window. A month is long enough that it would have to be a real settlement, not a breather.

Daniel O.@daniel_o· 10 Sept

First half of 2027

The famine reporting is what changes it. Armies that can no longer feed the territory they hold start talking, and that pressure lands next year.