The Floor
Will a person walk on the Moon again before 2030?
Fifty-seven years since the last one. Two programmes say this decade.
Concluded from · Boots on the lunar surface, confirmed by the operating agency, before 1 January 2030.
3y 3m left
45%
Boots down before 2030
55%
Not this decade
10 points apart — the bar grows from even, in the direction the room leans.
Where you stand
The room's largest group answered "Not this decade".
Answered as you did
—
Lead over second
10 pts
"Not this decade" is ahead
Everyone here
1,113
188 changed their mind
How divided
Dead even
agreed → even
| Answer | Share of the room | People | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boots down before 2030 | 502 | 45% | |
| Not this decademost | 611 | 55% |
Settles by 15 Jan · The operating space agency's own confirmation decides it.
1,113 have taken a position · 188 changed their mind · 3 reasons
What people are weighing
Take a position to mark what weighed with you
- The landing vehicle has not flown uncrewed yetNot this decade
- Two crewed flybys are manifested before thenBoots down before 2030
- Every crewed programme has slipped its first dateNot this decade
How the room moved
Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 1 Aug to now
What settles this, and when it closes
Settles yes on a crewed landing with at least one person leaving the vehicle onto the surface.
Source: The operating space agency's own confirmation · expected by 15 Jan
Counting closes on 31 Dec.
What people said · 3
Every bubble carries the side its writer took.
Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.
Rafael C.@rafael_c· 6 Sept
Every crewed programme in history slipped, and this one has to work twice before it carries anybody.
Grace F.@grace_f· 9 Sept
The lander has not flown empty yet. Nobody puts crew on a vehicle that has not completed one uncrewed flight, and that alone is two years.
Kenji S.@kenji_s· 10 Sept
Two crewed flybys are manifested first, which is how you retire most of the risk. If both fly clean the landing is a scheduling problem.
