← The Floor
Science and machinesCloses 1 Jan 2031

When will a driverless taxi pick people up in your city?

It already happens in a handful of places. Say when it reaches yours.

Concluded from · A paying passenger picked up with no safety driver aboard, reported by the operator.

4y 3m left

Already does
4%
Within two years
18%
Within five years
38%
Within ten years
31%
Not in my lifetime
9%
0%25%50%75%100%

Share of the room per band, 0 to 100 per cent. The bands run in order and the shade runs with them, light to dark.

Where you stand

The room's largest group answered "Within five years".

Answered as you did

Lead over second

7 pts

"Within five years" is ahead

Everyone here

1,058

52 changed their mind

How divided

Genuinely divided

agreed → even

Every answer, with how many people gave it
AnswerShare of the roomPeopleShare
Already does414%
Within two years18818%
Within five yearsmost40238%
Within ten years33131%
Not in my lifetime969%

Settles by 1 Feb · The operator's public service announcements decides it.

1,058 have taken a position · 52 changed their mind · 3 reasons

What people are weighing

Take a position to mark what weighed with you

  • Three operators now run without safety drivers
  • Snow and heavy rain remain unsolved for most fleets
  • City licensing has averaged eighteen months

How the room moved

0%25%50%75%100%19 Aug25 Aug30 Aug5 Septnow

Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 19 Aug to now

Already does 4% nowWithin two years 18% nowWithin five years 38% nowWithin ten years 31% nowNot in my lifetime 9% now

What settles this, and when it closes

Settles on the first public, driverless, paid passenger service operating in the answerer's stated city.

Source: The operator's public service announcements · expected by 1 Feb

Counting closes on 1 Jan.

What people said · 3

Every bubble carries the side its writer took.

Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.

Noor E.@noor_e· 8 Sept

Within five years

Licensing is the constraint, not the driving. Eighteen months is the average and nobody has even filed here.

Tobias G.@tobias_g· 9 Sept

Within two years

It goes from impossible to ordinary in about eighteen months once the first permit lands. That is what happened in every city that has one.

Christine A.@christine_a· 10 Sept

Not in my lifetime

Weather is not a detail. Half the year here the lane markings are under water or snow, and no fleet has solved that anywhere.

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