The Floor
Would weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz fall below the spring average?
Withdrawn. The source stopped publishing the series this question was written against.
Concluded from · Weekly transit counts published by the maritime authority, against the spring average.
10 days left
56%
Fell below
44%
Held above
12 points apart — the bar grows from even, in the direction the room leans.
Where you stand
The room's largest group answered "Fell below".
Answered as you did
—
Lead over second
12 pts
"Fell below" is ahead
Everyone here
428
22 changed their mind
How divided
Genuinely divided
agreed → even
| Answer | Share of the room | People | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fell belowmost | 240 | 56% | |
| Held above | 188 | 44% |
Withdrawn — the thing that would have settled it never happened.
428 have taken a position · 22 changed their mind
What people are weighing
- The publishing authority suspended its weekly series
- Insurance rates moved a fortnight before traffic did
- The spring average includes a two-week closure
Withdrawn
Withdrawn on 6 September: the series this question settles against stopped being published in August, and no equivalent exists. Nobody's answer counts, in either direction.
The lesson
A question is only as good as the source that settles it. Check that the source will still exist on the day.
There is no answer, and the floor will not invent one. The series this question was written to settle against stopped being published in August, and nothing equivalent replaced it. The 428 positions stand as a record of what people expected in July, and as nothing more. Settling it against a different number would be settling a different question.
This is a statement of where things stand. The floor is not offering a verdict, because it has none to offer honestly.
How the room moved
Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 20 Jul to now
How this one ended
Settles against the seven-day average of daily transit calls, against the spring average.
Source: The published transit series · expected by 5 Oct
The count closed by the floor, with the reason stated above. Positions can still be registered, and are kept but not counted.
What people said · 0
Every bubble carries the side its writer took.
Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.
Nobody has said why yet. Yours would be the first.
