← The Floor
Money and workCloses 15 Oct

If the regulator approves, will the plant reopen within a month?

One of two futures. The regulator decides on Thursday and deletes the other one.

Hangs on: The regulator's decision, expected Thursday

Concluded from · The plant's own notice of resumption, within thirty days of the approval.

25 days left

54%

Reopens within a month

46%

Longer than a month

8 points apart — the bar grows from even, in the direction the room leans.

Where you stand

The room's largest group answered "Reopens within a month".

Answered as you did

Lead over second

8 pts

"Reopens within a month" is ahead

Everyone here

629

41 changed their mind

How divided

Dead even

agreed → even

Every answer, with how many people gave it
AnswerShare of the roomPeopleShare
Reopens within a monthmost34154%
Longer than a month28846%

Settles by 20 Oct · The operator's own announcement of restart decides it.

629 have taken a position · 41 changed their mind · 3 reasons

What people are weighing

Take a position to mark what weighed with you

  • The workforce was retained on standby payReopens within a month
  • Two of the four furnaces need recommissioningLonger than a month
  • Restarts at this plant have averaged six weeksLonger than a month

How the room moved

0%25%50%75%100%7 Sept9 Sept12 Sept14 Septnow

Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 7 Sept to now

Reopens within a month 54% nowLonger than a month 46% now

What settles this, and when it closes

Only settles if the regulator approves. If it refuses, this half is withdrawn and leaves no mark.

Source: The operator's own announcement of restart · expected by 20 Oct

Counting closes on 15 Oct.

What people said · 3

Every bubble carries the side its writer took.

Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.

Petra L.@petra_l· 8 Sept

Longer than a month

Standby pay keeps the people, not the furnaces. Recommissioning two of four is a six-week job on a good run and nothing here has been a good run.

Marcus D.@marcus_d· 9 Sept

Reopens within a month

They kept the workforce specifically so they could restart fast. That is an expensive bet to make and then not cash.

Ilse V.@ilse_v· 10 Sept

Longer than a month

The thirty days is from approval, and approval is not the last permission they need. The fire certificate is a separate queue.

The other future

Both halves are answered. When The regulator's decision, expected Thursday resolves, one of them is withdrawn and leaves no mark — being deleted is not the same as being wrong.

Alongside this