The Floor
Will your weekly shop cost more this time next year?
The one forecast everybody makes without noticing. New figures land on this one every month.
Concluded from · The national statistics office's food basket index, twelve months from opening.
11 months left
Centred on “About the same” — the line is where the room balances.
- Noticeably more
- About the same
- Less
Where you stand
The room's largest group answered "Noticeably more".
Answered as you did
—
Lead over second
38 pts
"Noticeably more" is ahead
Everyone here
1,127
288 changed their mind
How divided
Leaning one way
agreed → even
| Answer | Share of the room | People | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noticeably moremost | 730 | 65% | |
| About the same | 301 | 27% | |
| Less | 96 | 9% |
Settles by 15 Sept · The national statistics office's monthly food index decides it.
1,127 have taken a position · 288 changed their mind · 3 reasons
What people are weighing
Take a position to mark what weighed with you
- Food inflation has run above headline inflation for three yearsNoticeably more
- Wholesale grain prices fell by a fifth this springLess
- Retailers pass on falls more slowly than risesNoticeably more
How the room moved
Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 6 Jul to now
The vertical rules are the days a new fact landed. The room moved after each one.
What has landed since this opened
Wholesale grain falls for a third month
The wholesale price of the three largest cereal crops has fallen for a third consecutive month, though retailers say contracts are set a year ahead.
20 Jul
Two large grocers announce price holds
Two of the four largest chains announce price holds on staples through the winter.
17 Aug
Shipping costs up sharply
Freight rates on the two main import routes rose by a fifth in a month after a rerouting.
7 Sept
What settles this, and when it closes
Settles against the national food price index for the same month, twelve months on. Two per cent either way counts as about the same.
Source: The national statistics office's monthly food index · expected by 15 Sept
Counting closes on 1 Sept.
What people said · 3
Every bubble carries the side its writer took.
Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.
Sara B.@sara_b· 8 Sept
Price holds were announced before the freight news and they are contractual. The chains cannot quietly drop them in November.
Owen L.@owen_l· 9 Sept
Freight always reaches the shelf. It just takes two quarters, which is exactly the window this question asks about.
Marie T.@marie_t· 10 Sept
Both sides of this are real and they roughly cancel. Wholesale is down, labour and energy are up, and the shelf price is where they meet.
