The Floor
Will house prices in your city be higher or lower next summer?
Everybody has a view on this and almost nobody writes it down where it can be checked.
Concluded from · The national house price index for your city, twelve months from opening.
8 months left
Share of the room per band, 0 to 100 per cent. The bands run in order and the shade runs with them, light to dark.
Where you stand
The room's largest group answered "Up a little".
Answered as you did
—
Lead over second
5 pts
"Up a little" is ahead
Everyone here
1,212
63 changed their mind
How divided
Genuinely divided
agreed → even
| Answer | Share of the room | People | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down more than a tenth | 88 | 7% | |
| Down a little | 260 | 21% | |
| About flat | 341 | 28% | |
| Up a littlemost | 402 | 33% | |
| Up more than a tenth | 121 | 10% |
Settles by 15 Jul · The national house price index decides it.
1,212 have taken a position · 63 changed their mind · 3 reasons
What people are weighing
Take a position to mark what weighed with you
- Mortgage rates have fallen twice since the spring
- New listings are at a five-year high
- Transaction volumes lead prices by about two quarters
How the room moved
Share of the room, 0 to 100 per cent · 1 Sept to now
What settles this, and when it closes
Settles against the national house price index for June 2027, against the same month this year.
Source: The national house price index · expected by 15 Jul
Counting closes on 1 Jun.
What people said · 3
Every bubble carries the side its writer took.
Take a position above to add your view. You can read everyone else’s now.
Dermot Q.@dermot_q· 8 Sept
Two rate cuts land in buyers' budgets about six months later, which is exactly next summer. Listings are high now because sellers can see it coming.
Sasha B.@sasha_b· 9 Sept
Volumes lead prices by two quarters and volumes are flat. Flat is the boring answer and it is usually the right one.
Hal N.@hal_n· 10 Sept
Every forecast I have read this year assumed cuts would pass through. They have not passed through yet and I do not think they will in twelve months.
